College Football Bowl Projections | Brett McMurphy’s Week 14 Predictions

By | November 29, 2022

Week 14 College Football Bowl Projections

With less than a week until bowl bids are officially announced, it remains to be seen how many teams are bowl eligible.

We interrupt our weekly bowl projections for breaking news: Action Network is reporting that Middle Tennessee and San Diego State are heading to the Hawaii Bowl… now back to bowl projections.

It is unknown how many teams are eligible because Buffalo (5-6) plays Akron in a Friday game rescheduled because of the weather. It’s simple for Buffalo – win, and the Bulls are the 80th bowl-eligible team.

If Buffalo wins, it will take two five-win teams to fill the final two spots. An Akron win means it will take three five-win teams to fill the 82 spots.

The order of teams with five wins is based on Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores. Rice had the highest APR score of the teams with five wins, followed by UNLV and Auburn. Regardless of the Buffalo-Akron result, Rice is guaranteed a bowl. UNLV has the next highest APR, followed by Auburn.

If Buffalo loses, UNLV and Auburn would be next in line to receive bowl bids.

However, New Mexico State Athletic Director Mario Moccia told Action Network that the school filed an appeal today with the NCAA Football Oversight Committee, seeking a waiver that would allow 5-6 NMSU to play in a bowl. .

New Mexico State is seeking a waiver because the Aggies were unable to play their full 12-game schedule due to tragic circumstances involving the death of a San Jose State player and the subsequent cancellation of the NMSU-SJSU game.

New Mexico State tried unsuccessfully to find another FBS opponent. Here’s more about the State of New Mexico’s appeal efforts.

If the NCAA rules in favor of New Mexico State, the Aggies would be selected ahead of Rice, UNLV and Auburn. It doesn’t matter if the state of New Mexico gets an exemption or not, Rice will still be bowl bound. For UNLV and Auburn, they will have to wait to see (a) whether Buffalo wins and (b) whether New Mexico State’s appeal succeeds.

In terms of my bowl projections this week, I’m projecting Buffalo to become the 80th team to qualify for the bowl, leaving spots for two five-win teams. Until the NCAA decides on New Mexico State’s appeal, I’m putting Rice and UNLV in my projections.

After Tuesday’s penultimate College Football Playoff seeding, I’ll have a special bowl projection updated on Wednesday. And plan accordingly – all bowl matches will be officially announced on Sunday.

Here are this week’s projections of current betting power rankings from Action Network Senior Writer Collin Wilson.


CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship


College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections


New Year’s Six Bowl Games


Projections for all other bowls


🇧🇷 The highest ranked champion of the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if they do not qualify for the College Football Playoff.

🇧🇷A highlighted team name means that the team is already confirmed for its respective bowl.

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